The Bengals take 4.5 points from the Ravens. 25,000 GRIDIRON simulations returns Bengals 20.2, Ravens 26.4 — a 6.2-point margin for Ravens and a 46.6 total. Projection and market disagree by 1.7 points, which puts Ravens -4.5 on The Card at LEAN.
Bengals PF/PA reads 78-103, or -6.3 a week. In a 17-game season a scoring differential that far from league average is mostly schedule and turnover luck this early. The PF/PA Claw-Back shrinks both teams toward the league baseline before simulation — Bengals +2.1, Ravens -1.8, with the harder pull on Bengals at 2.1 points. Both teams come in on standard rest, so no schedule adjustment applies.
The total sits at 46.5. GRIDIRON projects 46.6, a 0.1-point lean to the Over, clearing in 49.2% of simulations. Inside the noise band — no pregame total play.
Verdict: LEAN on Ravens -4.5. The cover hits in 55.8% of 25,000 simulations, sizing to 1.8% of bankroll at quarter Kelly and -110. Once the game kicks, the live cover price moves about 3 cents per point of lead above the number — the live page tracks it in real time.
GRIDIRON projects Bengals 20.2, Ravens 26.4, with Bengals winning outright in 33.1% of simulations.
Bengals +4.5 with a total of 46.5. Our projected margin of 6.2 sits 1.7 points off that spread.
The total sits at 46.5. GRIDIRON projects 46.6, a 0.1-point lean to the Over, clearing in 49.2% of simulations. Inside the noise band — no pregame total play.
The Cushion live page for this game prices the cover from the current lead, the number, and the clock. A fresh whole-number favorite prices near 47 cents, and the price moves roughly 3 cents per point of lead above the spread — about 1.5 cents per point on the total.
Model output, not advice. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being entertainment, call 1-800-GAMBLER.