Week 5 has the Texans at -5.5 against the Jaguars. 25,000 GRIDIRON simulations settles on Texans 23.3, Jaguars 18.1 — a 5.2-point margin for Texans and a 41.4 total. We have the game 0.3 points off the number, which puts Jaguars +5.5 on The Card at PASS.
The Jaguars are carrying a -6.3 scoring margin per game. In a 17-game season a scoring differential that far from league average is mostly schedule and turnover luck this early. The PF/PA Claw-Back shrinks both teams toward the league baseline before simulation — Texans -0.3, Jaguars +1.7, with the harder pull on Jaguars at 1.7 points. Rest is not neutral either: Jaguars come in on 13 days against 7, a 6-day gap the market prices thinly.
The total sits at 41.5. GRIDIRON projects 41.4, a 0.1-point lean to the Under, clearing in 49.7% of simulations. Inside the noise band — no pregame total play.
No play. NFL numbers are the sharpest on the board and a sub-point disagreement is not an edge, it is noise wearing a suit. Pass, and check back at kickoff — Cushion will price this one live once there is a scoreboard to read.
GRIDIRON projects Texans 23.3, Jaguars 18.1, with Texans winning outright in 64.1% of simulations.
Texans -5.5 with a total of 41.5. Our projected margin of 5.2 sits 0.3 points off that spread.
The total sits at 41.5. GRIDIRON projects 41.4, a 0.1-point lean to the Under, clearing in 49.7% of simulations. Inside the noise band — no pregame total play.
The Cushion live page for this game prices the cover from the current lead, the number, and the clock. A fresh whole-number favorite prices near 47 cents, and the price moves roughly 3 cents per point of lead above the spread — about 1.5 cents per point on the total.
Model output, not advice. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being entertainment, call 1-800-GAMBLER.