Enter the lead and the clock. Cushion prices what the cover is actually worth right now — the same math the market uses, without waiting for a book to repost the number.
Fair price is Φ((cushion + drift) / σ), where σ is 13.5 × √(minutes ÷ 60). A fresh whole-number favorite prices just under 50 cents because push mass sits on the number itself, and the opening over prices just above it.
Cushion treats the clock as pressure rather than a math weighting. The leading team plays to protect, the trailing team plays free, and runs happen exactly when that pressure starts to bite. That behavior is why a two-score lead in the fourth is worth less than the raw normal curve says.
The total runs on TM+Pace by default — the TuttleMath projection averaged with the observed pace line, which keeps a cold first quarter from dragging the projection somewhere the game will not stay.
Model output, not advice. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being entertainment, call 1-800-GAMBLER.