The Saints take 2 points from the Buccaneers. 25,000 GRIDIRON simulations returns Saints 21.0, Buccaneers 22.4 — a 1.4-point margin for Buccaneers and a 43.4 total. Projection and market disagree by 0.6 points, which puts Saints +2 on The Card at PASS.
Buccaneers PF/PA reads 101-85, or +4.0 a week. In a 17-game season a scoring differential that far from league average is mostly schedule and turnover luck this early. The PF/PA Claw-Back shrinks both teams toward the league baseline before simulation — Saints +0.9, Buccaneers -1.0, with the harder pull on Buccaneers at 1.0 points. Both teams come in on standard rest, so no schedule adjustment applies.
The total sits at 43.5. GRIDIRON projects 43.4, a 0.1-point lean to the Under, clearing in 52.2% of simulations. Inside the noise band — no pregame total play.
No play. NFL numbers are the sharpest on the board and a sub-point disagreement is not an edge, it is noise wearing a suit. Pass, and check back at kickoff — Cushion will price this one live once there is a scoreboard to read.
GRIDIRON projects Saints 21.0, Buccaneers 22.4, with Saints winning outright in 46.2% of simulations.
Saints +2 with a total of 43.5. Our projected margin of 1.4 sits 0.6 points off that spread.
The total sits at 43.5. GRIDIRON projects 43.4, a 0.1-point lean to the Under, clearing in 52.2% of simulations. Inside the noise band — no pregame total play.
The Cushion live page for this game prices the cover from the current lead, the number, and the clock. A fresh whole-number favorite prices near 47 cents, and the price moves roughly 3 cents per point of lead above the spread — about 1.5 cents per point on the total.
Model output, not advice. 21+ where legal. If gambling stops being entertainment, call 1-800-GAMBLER.